Author(s): Kemp-Benedict, E.
In: Global Environmental Change, in press; available online 2 July 2012
Type: Journal article
Link to SEI author(s):
Downscaling global income scenarios assuming institutional convergence or divergence
This paper offers a new approach to generating long-term global scenarios of economic growth at national level.
The paper presents a simple model grounded in the economic theory of conditional convergence. The free parameters in the model, which characterize different scenarios, reflect rates of institutional and structural convergence between countries. The model can be used either for generating new global economic scenarios, or for downscaling existing regional economic scenarios.
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