In this book chapter the authors analyse the options for resilient and sustainable water resource supply for food production using a 'back-casting' approach for 2050 (assuming UN medium population), and estimates of 'blue' and 'green' water accessibility on current gricultural land including permanent pasture.

The authors estimate that in 2050, and after accounting for climate change, there will be enough water globally to produce a healthy diet for all. However, they warn that out of a total population of 9.1 billion, only 2.7 billion (30%) will be living in countries that might be food self-sufficient, leaving some 6.4 billion (70%) with an overall water deficit of 2150 cubic kilometers per year. The shortfall will have to be compensated by imports, cropland expansion, intensification of water use on permanent pasture lands, food loss reduction, or as a last resort, reduced diet expectations or food aid.


Preview or order the book from Cambridge University Press (external link)