FP7 Forward Looking Analysis of Grand Societal Challenges and Innovative Policies (FLAGSHIP)

The FLAGSHIP project aimed at driving change, supporting the policy shift from adapting to changes through short-term policy responses, towards anticipating, welcoming and managing changes properly.

The project brought together a multidisciplinary team with recognised records of excellence in qualitative, as well as in quantitative forward-looking analysis.

The objectives were to:

• Take stock, assess and analyse the state-of-art of Forward Looking Analysis (FLA) methodologies;
• Develop innovative FLA quantitative and qualitative tools, methods and models;
• Apply and combine these enhanced tools and methods in a coherent framework to support European policies addressing grand societal challenges, namely the environmental, socioeconomic and governance challenges.

The FLAGSHIP project combined quantitative modelling with qualitative storylines of possible futures and developed two visions: the Perseverance and the Metamorphosis vision. Both visions aim to deliver sustainability goals, but the key difference is that the metamorphosis adds in the picture new features and opportunities that are conducive to a better sustainability fit, make the system more legitimate and hence more resilient to future shocks.

Quantitative modelling focused on two of the grand societal challenges: the economic and environmental challenges including their linkages to technology, demographics, energy developments and the impact on climate change.

In addition, four meta-models for analysing welfare, affluence, cohesion and environment were developed as strategic tools between qualitative scenario narrative-making and complex resource-intensive modelling exercises.